Outbreak, epidemic, pandemic
PUBHLTH 405
Social Epidemiology of Infectious Disease
University of Michigan School of Public Health
Jon Zelner
jzelner@umich.edu
epibayes.io
Agenda
What is an epidemic?
- According to the CDC?
- According to Rosenberg?
- According to us?
Finish pathogen dossiers.
Dig into Rosenberg’s dramaturgical take on epidemics.
The different types of infectious disease events according to the CDC
Outbreak
Epidemic
Endemic
Pandemic
Take 15m in pathogen groups from last time to discuss what differentiates these from each other and how they impact your pathogen.
What types of social and historical factors are likely to influence each of these types of events?
How are they similar?
How might they differ in their causes and impacts?
Which of these is most applicable to your project pathogen?
What does it mean to take a dramaturgical perspective 🎭 on epidemics?
“A true epidemic is an event, not a trend.” (Rosenberg 2020)
Epidemic as a play in three acts:
Progressive Revelation
Managing Randomness
Negotiating Public Response
Progressive Revelation
Only when the presence of an epidemic becomes unavoidable is there public admission of its existence. Bodies must accumulate and the sick must suffer in increasing numbers before officials acknowledge what can no longer be ignored. (Rosenberg 2020, 566)
Managing Randomness
Accepting the existence of an epidemic implies — in some sense demands — the creation of a framework within which its dismaying arbitrariness may be managed. Collective agreement on that explanatory framework may be seen as the inevitable second stage in any epidemic. (Rosenberg 2020, 567)
Public Response
In the stress of an epidemic…, failure to take action constitutes action. An epidemic might in this sense be likened to a trial, with policy choices constituting the possible verdicts. (Rosenberg 2020, 569)
How can we apply Rosenberg’s take to real-world problems?
To what extent do Rosenberg’s criteria and those of the CDC align with each other?
Which set of definitions is more useful from a day-to-day perspective?
Could we integrate Rosenberg’s ideas into a revised set of guidelines?
Revising CDC’s definitions
We are going to take a shot at doing a bit of what this tweet suggests ️➡️
Try to channel some of the ideas from “What is an epidemic?” to revise widely-used CDC definitions and guidance.
Open up this document and read the instructions to get started.
“Public health would work better if we stopped mischaracterizing it as an academic field and instead defined it as a necessarily political practice that depends upon synthesizing tools from history, anthropology, epidemiology, geography, planetary sciences, biology, statistics etc.”— Eric Reinhart (9/1/22)